在地缘政治预测中的人类和算法预测:在难以量化的领域量化不确定性
Barbara A Mellers1, John P McCoy1, Louise Lu2
1Department of Marketing, University of Pennsylvania.
概括
在协助人类专家时,算法可以显著提高地缘政治预测的准确性. 虽然人类可能会保持控制,但算法支持对于在这个复杂的领域中做出更好的预测至关重要.
科学领域:
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 国际关系 国际关系
背景情况:
- 统计预测模型在各种领域往往优于人类的判断力.
- 地缘政治预测存在独特的挑战,原因是复杂的,定性数据和难以定义可比的历史案例.
- 高风险的地缘政治事件需要准确的预测,传统上依赖于人类的专业知识.
研究的目的:
- 评估算法在地缘政治预测中的作用和影响.
- 探索混合人 - 算法方法的潜力,以提高预测准确度.
- 为了确定人类领导的地缘政治分析中算法的最佳集成.
主要方法:
- 审查现有研究,比较算法和人类预测准确度.
- 对将预测算法应用于地缘政治数据的具体挑战进行分析.
- 集成算法作为人类预测工具的概念框架.
主要成果:
- 算法在许多领域都表现出卓越的预测准确性,但对于纯算法方法来说,地缘政治预测具有挑战性.
- 算法对于聚合各种信息,构建人类判断和形成混合模型是有价值的.
- 人类预测是必不可少的,但他们的准确性被算法辅助显著提高.
结论:
- 算法是人类地缘政治预测者的关键工具,而不是替代品.
- 混合模型将人类专业知识与算法支持相结合,为改善地缘政治预测准确性提供了最有希望的途径.
- 持续开发和整合算法对于推进地缘政治预测领域至关重要.
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