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在转换尺度上对流行病学预测进行评分
Nikos I Bosse1,2,3, Sam Abbott1,2, Anne Cori4
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
PLoS computational biology
|August 29, 2023
概括
转换流行病学预测数据,如使用日志 (x+1) 转换,通过提供更有意义和可解释的结果来改善模型评估. 该方法增强了用于公共卫生决策的流行病预测模型的评估.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 流行病学预测评估对于开发预测模型至关重要.
- 像CRPS和WIS这样的共同得分测量预测分布与观察.
- 直接将分数应用于发病率计数可能是有问题的,因为流行病过程的特点.
研究的目的:
- 在应用预测评估分数之前,研究转换发病率计数的好处.
- 为了证明转换如何产生更有意义和可解释的结果.
- 突出使用日志转换数据用于预测评估的优点.
主要方法:
- 应用连续排列概率得分 (CRPS) 在日志转换的发病率计数上.
- 利用了来自欧洲COVID-19预测中心的数据和预测.
- 分析了log(x+1) 转换对模型排名的影响.
主要成果:
- 日志转换的CRPS提供了概率相对误差,并反映了流行病增长率预测的准确性.
- 对数转换产生预期的CRPS值,独立于预测量的大小.
- 转型改变了模型排名,强调错过的上升趋势,并淡化错过的高峰.
结论:
- 在评估传染病发病率预测模型时,应考虑适当的数据转换,例如自然对数.
- 对数转换为评估模型性能提供了更强大,更易于解释的方法.
- 这种方法提高了模型比较的可靠性,并为公共卫生战略提供了信息.
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