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相关概念视频

Hindsight Biases01:12

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
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The confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore information that is inconsistent with our expectations. For example, if you think that your professor is not very nice, you notice all of the instances of rude behavior exhibited by the professor while ignoring the countless pleasant interactions he is involved in on a daily basis. Have you ever fallen prey to the confirmation bias, either as the source or target of such bias?
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jul 17, 2025

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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对模两可的厌恶,现代贝叶斯主义和小世界.

Nikitas Pittis1, Phoebe Koundouri2, Panagiotis Samartzis1

  • 1Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece.

Open research Europe
|August 30, 2023
PubMed
概括

在不确定性下的理性代理人如果使用现代贝叶斯主义 (MB),可能不会表现出对模两可的厌恶 (AA). MB在规范上优于古典贝叶斯主义 (CB),特别是在复杂的"大世界"中.

关键词:
不明确性 厌恶 模糊性 厌恶经典贝叶斯主义的贝叶斯主义.现代贝叶斯主义是现代贝叶斯主义.小小的世界.不确定性是一种不确定性.

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科学领域:

  • 决策理论 决策理论
  • 认识论的认识论学.
  • 理性选择理论理性选择理论

背景情况:

  • 模糊性厌恶 (AA) 是决策理论中的一个关键概念,解释了不确定性下的选择.
  • 经典贝叶斯主义 (CB) 和现代贝叶斯主义 (MB) 为信仰形成提供了不同的框架.
  • 在像施迈德勒和埃尔斯伯格这样的标准例子中,AA的有效性在MB中受到质疑.

研究的目的:

  • 为了确定一个理性代理是否可以在不同的贝叶斯框架下表现出模两可的厌恶 (AA).
  • 评估MB对CB的规范优势.
  • 根据MB,重新审视AA的动机.

主要方法:

  • 在MB框架内重新审视施迈德勒的基于硬币的例子.
  • 分析 MB 对信念形成的影响.
  • 小小的世界.
  • , , , 这是一个很好的方法.

主要成果:

  • 在"小世界"中的理性MB代理人不能表现出AA.
  • MB避免了主观概率和客观机会之间的逻辑不一致.
  • MB解决了"旧证据"的问题,避免了"认知不和".

结论:

  • 基于"小世界"的例子,AA的动机很弱.
  • 在规范上,MB优于CB.
  • AA可能是"大世界"的属性,其中MB是不可行的.