全球敏感性分析,以提高能源系统优化建模的透明度和严谨性
William Usher1, Trevor Barnes2, Nandi Moksnes1
1Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
Open research Europe
|August 30, 2023
概括
全球敏感性分析 (GSA) 为能源系统优化模型 (ESOMs) 提供了实际指导. 这种方法有效地识别了关键参数,提高了长期能源规划的透明度和可靠性.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 计算建模 计算建模
- 不确定性定量化 不确定性定量化
背景情况:
- 能源系统优化模型 (ESOM) 对国家和地区的长期能源规划至关重要.
- 尽管已被认可的重要性,但关于将不确定性纳入ESOM的实际指导,如全球敏感性分析 (GSA),是有限的.
- 现有的文献显示了GSA的良好应用,但缺乏全面的实施策略.
研究的目的:
- 为在ESOM中进行GSA提供全面指导方针,从而降低采用障碍.
- 提供关于GSA在能源系统建模中的必要性和应用的教学见解.
- 在开源能源建模系统 (OSeMOSYS) 框架内使用莫里斯方法来演示GSA的实际实施.
主要方法:
- 在ESOM中制定GSA实施指导方针.
- 使用莫里斯方法用于GSA,这是一个计算效率高的技术.
- 将GSA应用于简单的示例模型和使用OSeMOSYS的现实能源系统模型.
主要成果:
- 在简单和复杂的ESOM中,GSA成功地确定了有影响力和无影响力的参数.
- 分析表明,使用开源工具,GSA可以很容易地应用于ESOM.
- 调查结果与最佳实践研究一致,强调包括所有参数,避免过度关注技术成本等特定参数.
结论:
- 执行GSA显著有利于能源系统优化场景的设计和稳定性.
- 解释GSA结果提高了能源系统建模研究的透明度和科学严谨性.
- 在能源系统规划中,GSA是理解参数影响和管理不确定性的重要工具.
更多相关视频
11:53Spatial Multiobjective Optimization of Agricultural Conservation Practices using a SWAT Model and an Evolutionary Algorithm
Published on: December 9, 2012
13.0K
10:36Author Spotlight: Optimization of Airflow Velocities in Battery Cooling Systems for Enhanced Thermal Performance and Reduced Energy Consumption
Published on: November 3, 2023
1.6K
相关概念视频
01:10Energy Diagrams - II
4.7K
Energy diagrams are important to understand the dynamics of a system. The topology of an energy diagram helps illustrate the equilibrium points of the system.
The point in the energy diagram at which the system’s potential energy is the lowest is known as the local minima. The system tends to stay in this position indefinitely unless acted upon by a net force. The slope of the potential energy diagram at the local minima is zero, indicating that zero net force is acting on the system. The...
The point in the energy diagram at which the system’s potential energy is the lowest is known as the local minima. The system tends to stay in this position indefinitely unless acted upon by a net force. The slope of the potential energy diagram at the local minima is zero, indicating that zero net force is acting on the system. The...
4.7K
01:16Potential-Energy Criterion for Equilibrium
572
Potential energy or potential function plays an essential role in determining the stability of a mechanical system. If a system is subjected to both gravitational and elastic forces, the potential function of the system can be expressed as the algebraic sum of gravitational and elastic potential energy. If the system is in equilibrium and is displaced by a small amount, then the work done on the system equals the negative of the change in the system's potential energy from the initial to...
572
01:12Conservation of Energy: Application
7.0K
When solving problems using the energy conservation law, the object (system) to be studied should first be identified. Often, in applications of energy conservation, we study more than one body at the same time. Second, identify all forces acting on the object and determine whether each force doing work is conservative. If a non-conservative force (e.g., friction) is doing work, then mechanical energy is not conserved. The system must then be analyzed with non-conservative work. Third, for...
7.0K
01:20Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution: Problem Solving
1.6K
Individual molecules in a gas move in random directions, but a gas containing numerous molecules has a predictable distribution of molecular speeds, which is known as the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, f(v).
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
1.6K
01:13Parameters Affecting Nonlinear Elimination: Zero-Order Input, First-Order Absorption and Two-Compartment Model
89
Drugs administered through various routes can lead to nonlinear elimination, resulting in complex pharmacokinetic behaviors crucial to understanding efficacious drug dosing.
When a drug is administered through a constant intravenous infusion and eliminated via nonlinear pharmacokinetics, it follows zero-order input. For example, oral drugs undergo first-order absorption upon administration and are eliminated through nonlinear pharmacokinetics.
In the case of subcutaneously administered drugs,...
When a drug is administered through a constant intravenous infusion and eliminated via nonlinear pharmacokinetics, it follows zero-order input. For example, oral drugs undergo first-order absorption upon administration and are eliminated through nonlinear pharmacokinetics.
In the case of subcutaneously administered drugs,...
89
01:25Multimachine Stability
188
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
188