中国农业甲排放:库存,驱动力和缓解策略
Yang Duan1,2,3, Yueming Gao1,2,3, Jing Zhao1,2
1State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041, P. R. China.
Environmental science & technology
|August 30, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 中国是世界上最大的农业甲 (AGM) 排放国.
- 了解AGM的空间分布,驱动因素和未来趋势对于中国2060年碳中和目标至关重要.
- 目前对这些方面的研究是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计中国在2010-2020年间的AGM排放量.
- 确定AGM排放和减少的关键驱动因素.
- 在不同的场景下预测未来的AGM排放趋势.
主要方法:
- 估计中国的AGM排放量 (2010-2020年).
- 使用LMDI模型分解排放因子.
- 使用SSP-RCP场景预测未来的排放量.
主要成果:
- 中国的AGM排放量在2020年达到23.39Tg,肠发酵是主要来源 (43.9%).
- 西中国占AGM总排放量的39.3%.
- 排放强度和城市化是畜牧业和大米种植部门AGM减少的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 通过综合战略,到2060年,中国的AGM排放量可以减少约90%.
- 这些发现为优化中国和全球AGM减排政策提供了科学基础.
- 该研究支持有针对性的排放控制途径,以实现碳中和.
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