市场框架偏差和横截面股票回报
Jun Xie1, Baohua Zhang1, Bin Gao2
1School of Economics, Guangxi University, Nanning, China.
PloS one
|August 30, 2023
概括
本研究介绍了市场框架偏差 (MFB),一种影响股票回报的现象. 货币金融银行可以预测未来股票回报率较低,尽管它的预测能力随着时间的推移而减弱.
科学领域:
- 行为金融是行为金融.
- 市场微观结构 市场微观结构
- 金融经济学 金融经济学
背景情况:
- 投资者决策受认知偏见的影响.
- 市场框架偏差 (MFB) 是一种新发现的框架效应.
- 了解MFB对于解释回报风险权衡至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 介绍和定义市场框架偏差 (MFB).
- 调查MFB对未来股票回报的预测能力.
- 分析MFB预测能力的时间稳定性和影响因素.
主要方法:
- 在上升和下降市场中使用beta之间的绝对差异来量化MFB.
- 采用横截面分析来评估MFB的预测能力.
- 对特定公司的特点和定价因素进行控制.
主要成果:
- MFB证明了对未来股票回报的预测能力.
- 在长时间内,MFB的预测能力下降.
- 在短期内,MFB的预测能力仍然很强大.
结论:
- 市场框架偏差是理解股票回报可预测性的重要因素.
- 随着时间的推移,MFB的影响力逐渐减弱,这表明市场的适应或变化的动态.
- 短期的MFB影响是持久的,为交易策略提供了洞察力.
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