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全球风险和世卫组织心血管疾病风险评分之间的比较评估:基于人口的研究
Azizallah Dehghan1, Fatemeh Rezaei2, Dagfinn Aune3,4
1Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Fasa University of Medical Sciences, Fasa, Iran.
世界卫生组织 (WHO) 和Globorisk的心血管风险模型显示出良好的一致性和非常强的正相关性. 然而,Globorisk将更多的个人归类为高风险,这表明可能需要对模型进行调整.
科学领域:
- 心血管流行病学心血管流行病学
- 风险预测建模风险预测建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险预测模型,如Globorisk和WHO对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往是特定于特定地区的,需要在不同人群中进行验证.
- 法萨队列研究为评估心血管疾病风险评估工具提供了有价值的数据集.
研究的目的:
- 评估世卫组织与格洛博里斯克10年心血管疾病风险预测模型之间的协议和相关性.
- 为了比较这些风险模型的实验室和非实验室版本.
- 评估这些模型在特定人群中的表现 (Fasa队列).
主要方法:
- 利用了来自法萨队列研究的6796名 (40-74岁) 个体的基线数据.
- 使用世卫组织和Globorisk模型 (实验室和非实验室) 计算心血管疾病风险得分.
- 雇佣的卡帕统计数据用于分类协议和皮尔森相关性/布兰德-阿尔特曼图表用于连续协议.
主要成果:
- 在风险类别 (kappa值0.73-0.82) 中,WHO和Globorisk模型之间发现了实质性的或几乎完美的一致性.
- 在实验室和非实验室得分之间观察到非常强的正相关性 (r ≥0.95).
- 布兰德-阿尔特曼图表显示了系统差异,格洛博里斯克识别的高风险个体比世卫组织更多.
结论:
- 世界卫生组织和格洛博里斯克模型在这个人群中显示出良好的一致性和强烈的相关性.
- 风险分层存在系统差异,特别是在高风险类别中.
- 建议对这些模型在这个人群中进行进一步的验证和风险类别切割点的潜在修改.
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