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气候变暖增加了加利福尼亚州每日极端野火增长的风险
Patrick T Brown1,2,3, Holt Hanley4,5,6, Ankur Mahesh7,8
1Climate and Energy Team, The Breakthrough Institute, Berkeley, CA, USA. Patrick@thebreakthrough.org.
Nature
|August 30, 2023
概括
人为气候变暖增加了加利福尼亚
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 野火动力学
- 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 加利福尼亚面临极端野火事件的升级, 造成重大生命和财产损失.
- 将野火行为变化归因于气候变暖是复杂的,因为存在混因素和模型规模的限制.
研究的目的:
- 量化温度,干旱和加利福尼亚极端野火增长风险之间的经验关系.
- 通过机器学习估计人为变暖对极端野火增长风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用机器学习分析历史火灾数据 (2003-2020年).
- 温度,干旱 (蒸汽压力缺口,燃料湿度) 和极端的每日野火增长 (>10,000英) 之间的量化关系.
- 在不同的历史和预测气候条件下模拟火灾风险.
主要成果:
- 极端野火增长风险受到温度的显著影响,主要是通过其对燃料湿度的影响.
- 人为变暖使得每天极端野火的发生率平均增加了25%.
- 预计本世纪末的变暖可能会使极端野火的增长频率从59% (低排放) 增加到172% (高排放).
结论:
- 气候变暖,特别是在超过关键干旱值时,显著增加了极端野火增长的风险.
- 气候变暖对野火风险的影响是可变的,取决于特定的火灾条件和地点.
- 预计加州未来的野火风险将在持续的人为变暖下显著增加.
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