Tabby2:一个用户友好的网络工具,用于预测美国州级结核病结果
Nicole A Swartwood1, Christian Testa2, Ted Cohen3
1Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02120, USA. nswartwood@hsph.harvard.edu.
BMC medicine
|August 30, 2023
概括
国家级结核病建模表明,扩展潜伏结核病感染 (LTBI) 治疗可以减少病例和死亡. 该工具帮助公共卫生机构优化整个美国的结核病预防策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生建模公共卫生建模
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 疾病负担和风险因素在美国各州之间存在很大差异.
- 缺乏国家一级的建模分析,阻碍了对结核病和潜在结核病感染 (LTBI) 控制的有效资源配置.
- 公共卫生机构需要数据驱动的工具来为结核病预防和治疗政策提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数学模型和用户界面 (Tabby2) 用于模拟结核病流行病学和州级干预影响.
- 为每个州提供结核病发病率,成本和预防策略的成本效益的具体预测.
- 为美国有关结核病控制和资源部署的政策决策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种结核病流行病学的数学模型,与基于网络的界面 (Tabby2) 集成.
- 使用美国州和国家流行病学和人口统计数据对模型进行校准.
- 模拟预定义和定制干预场景,包括在马萨诸塞州扩大LTBI治疗.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,结核病发病率在所有州都将下降,不同地点的发生率有很大差异.
- 预计到2050年,大多数结核病例将在46个州和华盛顿特区的非美国出生的个人中被诊断出来.
- 马萨诸塞州扩展的LTBI治疗显示结核病例减少6.3%,死亡人数减少8.4%,ICER为180,951美元/QALY.
结论:
- Tabby2 能够对美国不同地理区域的结核病预防策略的成本,影响和成本效益进行估计.
- 扩大LTBI测试和治疗可以加速全国的结核病发病率下降.
- 该工具支持基于证据的政策制定,以控制美国的结核病.
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