使用CEEMDAN-GRU-变压器模型与代算法相结合的降水预测的新方法
Jiwei Zhao1, Guangzheng Nie2, Meng Yan2
1Water Conservancy College, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
概括
准确的降水预测在黄河流域对于水资源管理至关重要. 一个新的CEEMDAN-GRU-变压器模型有效地提高了使用频率分析的中长期降水预测准确度.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源水文与水资源
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学和机器学习
背景情况:
- 准确的降水预测对于黄河流域的水资源管理至关重要.
- 现有的降水预测模型往往忽视了不同频率组件对准确度的影响.
- 了解不同频率的降水变化是改善预测模型的关键.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估黄河上游的新型合月度降水预测模型.
- 调查频率分区对降水预测准确性的影响.
- 提高区域中长期降水预报的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 利用适应性噪声完整组合实证模式分解与适应性噪声 (CEEMDAN) 来分解降水数据.
- 采用排列 (PE) 来将CEEMDAN处理的数据分成不同的频率组件.
- 开发了一个结合模型,集成CEEMDAN,封闭的反复单元神经网络 (GRU) 和基于注意力机制的变压器,用于频率特定的预测.
主要成果:
- 拟议的CEEMDAN-GRU-Transformer模型在黄河上游四个地区的月度降水预测中表现出卓越的性能.
- 该模型实现了大于0.8的确定系数 (R2),表明了高预测准确度.
- 与其他模型的比较证实了合方法在捕获降水模式方面的有效性.
结论:
- CEEMDAN-GRU-变压器模型在区域中长期降水预测方面取得了重大进展.
- 将频率分析与先进的机器学习技术相结合,可以提高预测准确度.
- 这种新的方法为河流流域的水资源管理和规划提供了有价值的工具.
相关概念视频
Precipitation Processes
485
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
485
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.8K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.8K
Precipitation Gravimetry
6.7K
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
6.7K
Precipitation of Ions
28.0K
Predicting Precipitation
The equation that describes the equilibrium between solid calcium carbonate and its solvated ions is:
The equation that describes the equilibrium between solid calcium carbonate and its solvated ions is:
28.0K
Types of Coprecipitation
661
Coprecipitation is the contamination of a precipitate by otherwise soluble species and occurs via different processes. In colloidal precipitates, coprecipitation occurs via surface adsorption. For instance, barium sulfate has a primary layer of adsorbed barium ions and a secondary layer of nitrate counterions. This results in contamination of the precipitate by barium nitrate.
Sometimes, ions in a crystal lattice can undergo isomorphous replacement by inclusions of similar charge and size. For...
Sometimes, ions in a crystal lattice can undergo isomorphous replacement by inclusions of similar charge and size. For...
661
Transformers with Off-Nominal Turns Ratios
176
In scenarios involving parallel transformers with disparate ratings, developing per-unit models requires accommodating off-nominal turns ratios. This situation arises when the selected base voltages are not proportional to the transformer’s voltage ratings. Consider a transformer where the rated voltages are related by the term a. If the chosen voltage bases satisfy a relationship involving term b, term c is defined as the ratio of these bases. This ratio is then substituted into the...
176


