通过使用标准降水指数和标准水位指数的机器学习算法对干旱条件的评估和预测 (案例研究:伊朗雅兹德省)
Reza Shakeri1, Hossein Amini2, Farshid Fakheri1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|September 1, 2023
概括
雅兹德省面临着气象干旱的恶化,水文干旱更严重是由于地下水过度提取而不是降雨不足. 机器学习模型准确地预测了干旱状况,突出了迫切需要水资源管理策略的需求.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 干旱对干旱地区构成重大威胁,影响地下水位.
- 评估气象和水文干旱对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用标准降水指数 (SPI) 评估气象干旱,用标准水位指数 (SWI) 评估水文干旱,在伊朗的雅兹德.
- 研究SPI和SWI之间的关系,并使用机器学习算法预测干旱状况.
主要方法:
- 利用多个时间尺度的SPI (3,6,12,24个月) 和SWI进行29年的干旱评估.
- 使用机器学习模型 (线性,KNN,梯度提升,决策树,XGBoost,随机森林,神经网络) 进行干旱预测.
- 使用Score,RMSE和MAE指标评估模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 根据SPI,雅兹德省显示从温和湿到温和干旱的情况发生了转变.
- 机器学习模型在预测SPI方面表现出很高的准确性,SPI-6和SPI-3表现最好.
- 发现水文干旱比气象干旱更严重,未经控制的地下水抽取被确定为主要驱动因素,低SPI-SWI相关性表明 (R2 = 0.14).
结论:
- 雅兹德省正在经历严重的气象和严重的水文干旱,由于地下水过度提取而加剧.
- 机器学习模型是干旱预测和评估的有效工具.
- 紧急的水资源管理干预措施是必要的,以减轻干旱的影响,防止进一步的干旱.
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