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在确定北极森林生物多样性和碳的重要区域时,数据不确定性的作用
Heini Kujala1, Francesco Minunno2, Virpi Junttila3
1Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, (Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13), P.O. Box 17, 00014, Helsinki, Finland. heini.kujala@helsinki.fi.
Ambio
|September 1, 2023
概括
了解森林数据的不确定性是有效保护的关键. 稀有森林的不确定性对保护计划的影响最大,突出了改善数据以实现生物多样性和气候目标的关键领域.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 森林保护对于全球生物多样性和气候目标至关重要.
- 基于模型的森林生物多样性和碳价值的估计引入了对保护计划的不确定性.
- 这些估计的变化可能会影响保护特定森林种群的决策.
研究的目的:
- 调查森林变量估计中的不确定性如何影响模拟的生物多样性和碳模式.
- 评估这种不确定性对选择新的保护区的影响.
- 识别影响保护结果的关键数据不确定性.
主要方法:
- 探索森林属性估计的变化如何影响模拟的生物多样性和碳分布.
- 分析新保护区选择过程中产生的变异性.
- 评估保护价值对数据不确定性的敏感性.
主要成果:
- 生物多样性和碳模式都对森林属性的变化敏感.
- 罕见特征或分布不相似的特征的不确定性导致了保护计划的最大变化.
- 数据不确定性的意义因保护的景观部分而有所不同.
- 高价值的保护森林比低价值的森林对数据不确定性的抵抗力更强.
结论:
- 识别模型不确定性的关键来源对于减少保护决策中的错误至关重要.
- 在关键地区有针对性的数据改进可以提高森林保护战略的有效性.
- 强有力的保护规划需要承认和解决森林评估中的数据不确定性.
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