中国-东盟贸易状况和贸易潜力的评估:基于重力模型的经验研究
1Department of Digital Trade, Hangzhou Wanxiang Polytechnic, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
PloS one
|September 1, 2023
概括
中国-东盟贸易受到经济规模,距离,人口,自由贸易协定 (FTA) 和"一带一路"倡议的积极影响. 一些因素会对贸易产生负面影响,但增长潜力仍然存在,特别是在不包括越南在内的东盟国家.
科学领域:
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 经济地理 经济地理
- 区域经济一体化 区域经济一体化
背景情况:
- 中国 - 东盟贸易关系对于区域经济发展至关重要.
- 了解影响这种贸易的因素对于可持续增长至关重要.
- 全球经济格局不断变化,需要重新评估贸易潜力.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响中国-东盟双边贸易的关键因素.
- 开发一个概念框架来评估中国-东盟贸易潜力.
- 分析经济,地理和政策因素对贸易流动的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了10个东盟国家的2001-2021年面板数据.
- 应用了一种创新的贸易重力模型,其中包含了关键影响因素.
- 检查了单元根,协同整合和异质性,以便进行可靠的分析.
- 使用贸易潜力模型计算直接贸易潜力系数.
主要成果:
- 总经济产出,距离,东盟人口,自由贸易协定和"一带一路"倡议对中东贸易产生积极影响.
- 人均资源供给,人民币汇率和东盟陆地面积的负面影响较小.
- 中国 - 越南贸易显示出有限的增长潜力,需要新的机会.
- 与其他九个东盟国家存在重大未开发的贸易潜力.
结论:
- 加强积极的贸易因素和消除障碍对于增强中国-东盟贸易动态至关重要.
- "一带一路"倡议和自由贸易协定是双边贸易增长的关键推动力.
- 中国应该利用其在区域经济一体化中的作用,特别是在COVID-19后.
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