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使用机器学习和行政数据预测创伤性脑损伤后返回工作.

Helena Van Deynse1, Wilfried Cools2, Viktor-Jan De Deken1

  • 1Interuniversity Centre for Health Economics Research (I-CHER), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.

International journal of medical informatics
|September 1, 2023
PubMed
概括

使用行政数据的机器学习模型可以预测创伤性脑损伤 (TBI) 后返回工作的准确率为83%. 伤害前的就业是关键预测因素,尽管数据限制需要进一步的信息来改善患者的预后.

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科学领域:

  • 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
  • 康复医学 康复医学 康复医学
  • 公共卫生 公共卫生

背景情况:

  • 在创伤性脑损伤 (TBI) 后,准确的患者特异性预测对于临床实践和政策至关重要.
  • 应用于大型行政数据集的机器学习 (ML) 为开发预测模型提供了一个有希望的途径.

研究的目的:

  • 通过使用行政数据,评估预测TBI后一年返回工作的准确性.
  • 探索模型性能和特征重要性在区分轻度和中度至重度TBI时如何变化.

主要方法:

  • 利用基于人口的数据集,将2016年住院的TBI患者的比利时出院,索赔和社会保障数据结合起来.
  • 采用了三个ML算法:弹性净物流回归,随机森林和梯度增强.
  • 使用精度,灵敏度,特异性和ROC AUC.评估模型性能.

主要成果:

  • 所有的算法都产生了相似的结果,实现了83%的准确性 (ROC AUC85%),用于雇佣/失业二元分类.
  • 一个多类的就业结果的操作化达到76%的准确性 (ROC AUC 82%).
  • 对轻度与中度至重度TBI的单独建模并没有显著改变模型性能或特征重要性;受伤前的就业是主要预测因素.

结论:

  • 行政数据为TBI后返回工作预测提供了宝贵的见解.
  • 提高患者特异性预后需要通过额外的信息来补充行政数据.