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预测气候变暖对生物多样性热点地区河流鱼种多样性的影响
Toktam Makki1, Hossein Mostafavi2, Ali Akbar Matkan3
1Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
Scientific reports
|September 1, 2023
概括
气候变化威胁着伊朗的淡水鱼类. 预计37种物种将丧失息地,其中南里海地区受影响最严重,需要紧急的保护计划.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 生物多样性和气候变化是关键的全球威胁,特别影响稀有淡水生态系统.
- 伊朗的河流生态系统面临着这些同时发生的危机带来的重大风险.
研究的目的:
- 预测伊朗131种河流鱼类的空间分布和丰富性的未来变化.
- 评估2050年代和2080年代的乐观和悲观气候变化情景下的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用最大模型来预测基于水文单位 (HU) 占用率的潜在物种分布.
- 采用了九个环境预测变量,包括HU位置,高度,气候和斜率,用于当前和未来的气候条件.
主要成果:
- 水文单位的位置是鱼类占用最重要的因素,其次是海拔,气候和斜率.
- 预计37种物种将在所有未来情景中经历潜在息地占用率下降的情况.
- 据预测,在未来,南里海的海域将面临最严重的物种减少,其次是西扎格罗斯和伊朗西北部.
结论:
- 需要保护战略来缓解物种分散的挑战,特别是对那些面临灭绝或入侵高风险的物种.
- 管理计划应应对碎片化河流系统中受影响的物种,例如受水影响的物种.
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