流感发病率的时空演变模式及其与中国环境污染物的非线性空间相关性
Hao Li1, Miao Ge2, Congxia Wang3
1Institute of Healthy Geography, School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, China.
BMC public health
|September 1, 2023
概括
中国的流感疫情正在恶化,疫情的蔓延和与空气污染的非线性联系正在扩大. PM2.5,CO和NO2显示出正相关性,而PM10和SO2显示出负相关性,强调需要更好地监测和控制污染.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 中国的流感流行病正在增加,并与其他呼吸道疾病同时发生.
- 现有的流感研究往往以区域为重点,缺乏国家范围和对环境污染物的非线性关系的分析.
- 不清楚的时空模式和污染物相关性阻碍了有效的流感预防和控制,导致重大损失.
研究的目的:
- 分析2007-2017年中国流感发病率的国家时空演变情况.
- 调查关键环境污染物与中国各地流感发病率之间的非线性相关性.
- 为改善抗流感的公共卫生战略提供证据.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国疾病预防控制中心的全国流感发病率数据 (2007-2017) 和空气污染物监测数据.
- 采用时空立方体 (STC) 模型来绘制中国315个城市流感的时空动态.
- 应用了通用添加模型 (GAM) 来评估环境污染物 (PM2.5,PM10,CO,SO2,NO2,O3) 和流感发病率之间的非线性关系,考虑到空间异质性.
主要成果:
- 中国的流感发病率表现出强烈的季节性,在冬季和春季达到顶峰,在11年内趋势恶化和集群扩大.
- 在环境污染物和流感发病率之间发现了非线性相关性.
- 具体的污染物显示出不同的相关性:PM2.5,CO和NO2在高度下呈正相关性,PM10和SO2呈负相关性,而O3呈弱相关性.
结论:
- 随着疫情热点和多年趋势的扩大,中国流感疫情正在升级.
- 环境污染物和流感之间的关系是非线性的,并且在地理位置上有所不同.
- 建议包括加强流感监测,优化资源配置,减少空气污染,促进疫苗接种以减轻流行病的影响.
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