归因于温度变化的喘发病率:基于1990-2019年GBD数据的生态研究
Qingsong Xu1, Qinfeng Zhou1, Junjun Chen2
1School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
The Science of the total environment
|September 2, 2023
概括
全球温度变化增加了喘风险,特别是在儿童和老年人中. 气候变化缓解策略对于减少未来全球喘发病率至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 喘是全球慢性呼吸道疾病死亡的重要原因之一.
- 气候变化,特别是温度波动,与喘恶化有关.
- 长期温度变化与全球喘发病率之间的确切关系尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球最大温度变化和喘发病率之间的关联.
- 在各种气候变化情景下预测未来的喘发病率.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自全球疾病负担 (GBD) 结果数据库 (1990-2019) 的喘发病率,人口和社会经济数据.
- 纳入了同期TerraClimate的环境和地理统计数据.
- 采用四种共享社会经济路径 (SSPs 126,245,370,585) 来预测未来的与热有关的喘发病率 (2020-2100).
主要成果:
- 全球中位数的喘发病率为每10万人中402.0,在10岁以下的儿童中,喘发病率更高 (每10万人中1380.3).
- 最大温度变化增加1°C与全球喘风险增加5.0%相关.
- 这种关联在高度地区和50-70岁的个人中是一致的.
- 预计到2100年,喘发病率在较低排放场景下 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP370) 与SSP585相比,在较低排放场景下显著下降,特别是在60°以上的度上.
结论:
- 最大温度变化是与喘发病率相关的重要因素.
- 调查结果强调了强有力的气候变化缓解和适应战略的重要性.
- 实施这些战略对于减少气候变化所造成的喘负担至关重要.
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