在韩国冠状病毒疫情期间的过度死亡率
Changwoo Han1, Hoyeon Jang2, Juhwan Oh3
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Chungnam National University College of Medicine, 266, Munhwa-Ro, Jung-Gu, Daejeon, 35015, Korea. cwohan@cnu.ac.kr.
BMC public health
|September 2, 2023
概括
韩国在COVID-19大流行期间,过度死亡率增加了8.7%. 这种过度死亡率,特别是在成年人和老年人中,突出显示了大流行.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 冠状病毒疾病2019 (COVID-19) 大流行对韩国国家死亡率趋势的影响需要全面评估.
- 韩国在COVID-19大流行期间全国过度死亡率的现有数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 评估2013年1月至2022年6月在韩国的过度死亡率.
- 分析过度死亡率趋势,按流行年,性别和年龄组分层.
主要方法:
- 利用来自韩国国家健康保险服务和统计局的月度死亡率和人口数据.
- 采用准Poisson中断时间序列模型来估计反事实死亡率预测.
- 用分层分析计算了观察到的和预期的死亡率之间的绝对和比率差异.
主要成果:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间 (2020年3月至2022年6月) 观察到整体死亡率增加8.7%,总计超过61,277例死亡.
- 过度死亡率在疫情期间显著增加,在2022年显著增加 (1.244比率).
- 成年人 (20-64岁) 和老年人 (≥65岁) 的过度死亡率高于其他年龄组.
结论:
- 尽管实施了有效的隔离政策,但COVID-19疫情导致韩国死亡率大幅增加.
- 过度死亡率超过了直接与COVID-19相关的死亡人数,强调了大流行病的更广泛影响.
- 持续监测过度死亡率对于了解大流行病对国家健康的影响至关重要.
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