使用机器学习模型预测瘤患者的整体存活率:一个网络应用程序应用程序
Peng Cheng1, Xudong Xie1, Samuel Knoedler2
1Department of Orthopedics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277# Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, Hubei, China.
Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research
|September 2, 2023
概括
机器学习模型,特别是DeepSurv,在预测瘤患者生存率方面明显优于传统方法. 这一进步为罕见的骨癌预后的临床决策提供了更高的准确性.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 胆瘤是一种罕见的骨癌,预后具有挑战性.
- 准确的生存预测对于有效的患者管理和治疗规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估机器学习 (ML) 存活模型与标准的Cox比例危险 (CoxPH) 模型相比,用于胆瘤患者存活预测的有效性.
- 确定用于临床应用的表现最佳的ML模型.
主要方法:
- 一项基于人口的队列研究,使用监测,流行病学和最终结果数据库 (2000-2018) 对724名冠状瘤患者进行了调查.
- 开发和验证三个ML生存模型和一个CoxPH模型.
- 模型性能使用一致性指数 (C指数),布里尔得分,ROC曲线和校准曲线评估5年和10年生存概率.
主要成果:
- 与CoxPH模型相比,ML模型显示出更高的性能.
- DeepSurv ML模型实现了最高的C指数 (0.795) 和优越的歧视 (AUC为5年生存率为0.84%,为10年生存率为0.88).
- DeepSurv显示出强大的校准和有效的风险分层,并实现了用于临床使用的网络应用程序.
结论:
- 机器学习算法,特别是DeepSurv,对于胆瘤生存预测非常有效.
- DeepSurv提供了卓越的区分和校准,代表了临床决策支持在心脏瘤护理的宝贵工具.
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