厄尔尼诺 - 南方振荡对全球植被的影响增加,在未来变暖的环境下
Thanh Le1,2
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, 05006, Republic of Korea. levinhthanh@hotmail.com.
Scientific reports
|September 2, 2023
概括
厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 将对全球植被产生重大影响,受影响地区预计在本世纪将大幅增加. 了解这些由ENSO驱动的植被变化对于减缓气候变化的努力至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 植被变化广泛影响气候,碳预算,水循环和生态系统生产力.
- 了解未来植被变化的驱动因素对于减轻全球变暖影响至关重要.
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 影响全球植被,但其在土地利用和变暖的变化下对未来的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查ENSO对未来植被覆盖的因果影响.
- 分析ENSO对植被的影响,使用2015-2100年叶面积指数 (LAI) 数据.
- 在不同的气候情景下,预测ENSO影响的植被区域的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用合建模相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 数据.
- 分析了2015年至2100年的叶面积指数 (LAI) 数据.
- 将预测的变化与历史数据 (1915-2000) 相比较.
主要成果:
- 在21世纪,受ENSO影响的植被面积预计将增加55.2% (SSP2-4.5) 和20.7% (SSP5-8.5).
- 在澳大利亚北部,亚马逊地区和东南亚地区,ENSO对LAI变化的签名很强大.
- 关于北美部分地区,澳大利亚南部和亚洲西部的ENSO植被联系存在不确定性.
结论:
- 预计ENSO对全球植被的影响力将在未来加强.
- 预计受ENSO影响的植被增加强调了需要适应性策略的需要.
- 关键地区强大的ENSO植被联系强调了在生态评估中考虑气候变异的重要性.
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