模拟响应的个人接种疫苗决策与SARS-CoV-2的传播之间的相互作用
Karina Wallrafen-Sam1, Maria Garcia Quesada1, Benjamin A Lopman1
1Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|September 4, 2023
概括
较低的COVID-19疫苗接种率可以通过解决社区因素的干预措施来改善. 建模表明主动策略,而不是反应性策略,显著提高疫苗接种率并减少疾病传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 行为科学 行为科学
背景情况:
- 尽管有效性很高,但COVID-19疫苗的接种率仍然低于最佳水平.
- 结合决策心理学的流行病模型可以为公共卫生干预提供信息.
- 了解影响疫苗犹的因素对于疫情控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟心理因素对COVID-19疫苗接种的影响.
- 评估不同疫苗推广干预策略的有效性.
- 确定影响疫苗接种决策的关键社区层面因素.
主要方法:
- 将基于网络的SARS-CoV-2传播模型与社会心理的疫苗接种决策模型结合起来.
- 模拟场景涉及疫苗副作用,疫苗接种后感染和社区层面的因素.
- 分析了疫苗耐药性和受住院率和未确定的因素影响的意愿之间的转变.
主要成果:
- 干预措施增加了医院住院的意愿,减少了未识别因素引起的耐药性,显著提高了疫苗接种率 (高达30.7%).
- 这些干预措施也降低了SARS-CoV-2发病率 (高达24.0%).
- 解决社区层面的因素比仅仅专注于住院驱动的意愿产生更大的影响.
结论:
- 针对社区层面的决策因素的积极疫苗推广干预措施是有效的.
- 建模证明了预测和影响流行病曲线的潜力,以更好地预防疾病.
- 心理和社区因素在疫苗犹和接种方面发挥着重要作用.
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