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系统动力学建模可以用来预测临床护理途径和末期脏病的成本:美国人口到2020年
Luca Fernandez1, Christopher Koliba1, Asim Zia1
1Community Development& Applied Economics University of Vermont, Burlington, VT.
Journal of health economics and outcomes research
|September 4, 2023
概括
预计末期脏病 (ESRD) 患者数量和成本将大幅增加. 战略性的临床和政策干预可以提高护理效率,为医疗保险节省数十亿美元.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 公共卫生建模公共卫生建模
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學.
背景情况:
- 末期病 (ESRD) 对医疗保险造成了巨大的财务负担,占总支出的9%.
- 获得ESRD的受益人承担的医疗保健费用是普通医疗保险人口的7-9倍.
- 预计医疗保险中的ESRD人口将增加.
研究的目的:
- 开发到2020年为末期病 (ESRD) 种群和相关成本的预测模型.
- 为临床医生和管理人员提供关于ESRD护理途径的财务影响的见解.
- 分析政策干预对未来ESRD处理的影响.
主要方法:
- 创建了一个系统动态模型,以预测到2020年在美国的ESRD流行率和总治疗成本.
- 该模型包括35个年龄和诊断子组的发病率,移植率和死亡率.
- 一个允许进行参数调整和政策干预模拟的Web界面.
主要成果:
- 该模型与美国脏数据系统 (USRDS) 的预测进行了校准,并与历史数据进行了验证.
- 预计到2020年,ESRD患者的患病率将达到829,000,比2010年增加30%.
- 该模型预测ESRD患者人群的持续增长.
结论:
- 临床和政策调整对于有效管理不断增长的ESRD人口至关重要.
- 将患者转移到更有效的治疗方法可以优化护理.
- 将系统思维集成到规划中可以为医疗保险的ESRD计划带来显著的成本节约.
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