一个澳大利亚的对流风吹气候学,使用贝叶斯的层次模型
Alessio C Spassiani1,2, Matthew S Mason1, Vincent Y S Cheng2
1School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia.
概括
这项研究使用贝叶斯模型和再分析数据为澳大利亚制定了全面的风暴气候学. 结果揭示了整个大陆严重的对流风暴事件的季节性模式和区域差异.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 量化严重的对流风暴风险需要一个空间完整的气候学.
- 现有的观测网络往往太稀疏,无法捕捉所有事件.
研究的目的:
- 为澳大利亚开发一个空间完整的对流风吹气候学.
- 为了纠正风暴数据中的观测偏差.
主要方法:
- 结合观测数据和ERA-Interim再分析数据 (2005-2015年) 的数据.
- 使用气象站数据和恶劣天气指数 (SWI) 开发贝叶斯层次模型.
- 估计季节性风吹频率并纠正观测偏差.
主要成果:
- 不同的SWI组合被证明对不同季节有效 (例如,秋冬的提升指数;春夏的微爆指数).
- 最少的事件数量发生在冬季,主要沿着西澳大利亚西南部,塔斯马尼亚和维多利亚.
- 夏季的事件数量最高,西澳大利亚北部,北领地和新南威尔士州东北部的事件数量最高.
结论:
- 贝叶斯层次模型有效地创造了一个空间上完整的风吹气候学.
- 这些模型只能使用再分析数据来应用,证明了它们的多功能性.
- 了解风暴事件的季节性和区域性变化对于风险评估至关重要.
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