在不同政策情景下的碳排放的动态模拟在珍珠河三角洲城市聚集区,中国
Yi Ding1,2,3, Jian Yin4,5,6, Hongtao Jiang2
1Center for China Western Modernization, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, University City, Huaxi District, Guiyang, 550025, Guizhou, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|September 4, 2023
概括
减少碳排放对于气候变暖至关重要. 这项研究使用了多规模的地理加权回归和系统动态来分析CE因素,并为珍珠河三角洲制定减少策略,发现全面的政策是最有效的.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 全球气候变暖需要减少碳排放,这是全球共识.
- 影响CE的因素是多样化和空间多样化,使绿色发展和中国的双碳目标复杂化.
- 由于复杂的系统和空间异质性,城市聚集地在CE管理方面面临着独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 探索珍珠河三角洲城市聚集区碳排放的影响因素.
- 通过整合空间异质性和多维驱动因素来设计有效的减排方案.
- 为CE减少政策提供一个动态的模拟框架,以支持可持续发展.
主要方法:
- 采用多尺度地理加权回归 (MGWR) 来分析CE影响因素的空间特征.
- 构建了一个系统动态模型,以创建一个包含多维驱动因素的CE系统框架.
- 该研究将空间异质性与减排对策相结合,用于动态政策模拟.
主要成果:
- 珍珠河三角洲城市聚集地预计到2025年将达到其碳峰值.
- 深,珠海和东在2020年之前实现了碳峰值;其他城市预计将在2025-2030年之间达到峰值.
- 政府政策的约束有效地制了CE;综合性政策优于单一战略的方法.
结论:
- 开发的模型框架提供了一个系统的方法来分析城市聚合区的碳减排策略.
- 决策者可以利用这个框架来平衡经济发展与绿色,低碳目标.
- 该研究有助于城市地区多方面的减排,并促进区域可持续发展.
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