网上对电子烟的兴趣使用谷歌趋势在英国:一个相关性分析
Zainah Sindhoo1, Shayaan Sindhoo2, Abhishek Ghosh3
1Lincoln Medical School, Universities of Nottingham and Lincoln, Nottingham, UK.
Substance use & misuse
|September 6, 2023
概括
谷歌趋势数据显示",vape"是最受欢迎的电子烟术语,与英国官方使用数据有很强的相关性. 虽然用于跟踪趋势,但预测模型对于电子烟预测需要进一步验证.
科学领域:
- 数字流行病学数字流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 互联网数据分析 互联网数据分析
背景情况:
- 谷歌趋势提供了可访问的,实时洞察公共利益.
- 在英国电子烟流行统计数据中存在数据缺口.
研究的目的:
- 分析英国谷歌趋势数据 (2012-2021) 以了解电子烟的术语和使用情况.
- 将搜索趋势与"烟草与健康行动"的官方数据进行关联.
- 评估谷歌趋势对事件的敏感性及其对电子烟数据的预测能力.
主要方法:
- 对2012年至2021年英国谷歌趋势数据的分析.
- 利用局部加权散射图平滑,修剪精确的线性时间方法,交叉相关性和自行回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 算法.
- 评估了术语的受欢迎程度,时间意义,搜索量相关性和预测准确性.
主要成果:
- "vape"成为主导的电子烟术语,与官方消费数据 (滞后0) 的相关系数> +0.9.
- 阿里马模型的预测显示了变化,预测的趋势偶尔会超过95%的预测间隔.
- 观察到的搜索趋势与官方数据之间的相关性表明,谷歌趋势可能反映了基于人口的电子烟使用情况.
结论:
- 谷歌趋势数据可能与基于人口的电子烟使用率保持一致.
- 搜索趋势的变化似乎与政策变化相吻合.
- 使用谷歌趋势的电子烟在线兴趣预测需要进一步验证,并应补充传统的数据收集方法.
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