使用ADHERE风险模型作为预测医院内心力衰竭恶化的风险在队列中的预测器
Daniela de Souza Bernardes1, Marina Scherer Santos2, Vanessa Monteiro Mantovani2
1Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde: Cardiologia e Ciências Cardiovasculares, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS - Brasil.
Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia
|September 6, 2023
概括
全国急性减补性心力衰竭登记 (ADHERE) 风险模型可以识别住院期间心力衰竭 (HF) 恶化的风险患者. 这项研究证实了它在巴西医院环境中的有效性.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 临床研究 临床研究
- 健康结果的健康结果.
背景情况:
- 急性不补偿性心力衰竭 (HF) 构成患者病情恶化的风险,需要进行密集干预.
- 全国急性减补心力衰竭登记 (ADHERE) 风险模型是为了预测医院内HF恶化而开发的.
- 在不同人群中验证预测模型对于临床应用至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估ADHERE风险模型在预测医院内HF恶化的有用性.
- 在巴西队列中确定ADHERE风险模型的敏感性和特异性.
- 评估模型在现实世界临床环境中的表现.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性队列研究,涉及890名心力衰竭患者.
- 2013年至2020年间,从巴西一家公立大学医院收集了数据.
- 统计分析包括计算曲线下的面积,灵敏度,特异性和预测值.
主要成果:
- 在ADHERE风险模型中,风险组中 (51.8%) 与非风险组 (27.2%) 相比,在住院恶化HF的发病率更高.
- 该模型表现出很好的准确性,曲线下的面积为0.665 (P < 0.01).
- 灵敏度为69.9%,特异性为55.2%,正预测值为52%,负预测值为72.7%.
结论:
- ADHERE风险模型有效地歧视了在住院期间患有恶化HF的患者和没有患上HF的患者.
- 这些发现支持使用ADHERE风险模型来对心力衰竭患者的风险分层.
- 需要在不同的医疗保健环境中进行进一步的验证,以确认可通用性.
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