模拟南非控制区的非洲马瘟的出现和传播,使用确定性超人口方法
Joanna N de Klerk1, Erin E Gorsich1, John D Grewar2
1The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
PLoS computational biology
|September 6, 2023
概括
在南非进口受感染的马.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 疾病建模 疾病建模
- 亚博病毒学 亚博病毒学
背景情况:
- 非洲马病 (AHS) 是一种严重的马类或比病毒疾病,由Culicoides咬传播.
- 在全球范围内,AHS造成了大量的马群损失,在南非是特有病,在西开普省采取了具体的控制措施.
- 了解潜在的疫情动态对于在AHS控制区有效的疾病管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟潜在的发生和非洲马瘟疫情的发展,后引入一个潜伏感染的马进入一个控制区域.
- 评估地理位置和进口月对疫情特征的影响.
- 评估控制措施的有效性,包括疫苗接种和媒介控制.
主要方法:
- 基于先前发表的普通微分方程模型,开发了一种决定性的元人口模型.
- 该模型包含了接种疫苗的马群,并模拟了潜伏感染马的引入.
- 地理位置,进口月份和控制策略各不相同;使用GIS绘图记录和可视化了疫情参数和基本繁殖数 (Rv).
主要成果:
- 较温暖的月份 (11月至3月) 与较冷的月份 (5月至9月) 相比,与更长时间的爆发,更慢的感染高峰时间和更大的总体爆发规模有关.
- 基本的繁殖数 (Rv) 在这个模拟中被发现是疫情动态的糟糕预测指标.
- 敏感性分析表明,疫苗接种和媒介控制措施在控制疫情传播方面是有效的.
结论:
- 在温暖的月份进口潜伏感染的马会在西开普州的控制区造成非洲马病爆发的风险更高.
- 将疫苗接种努力定向于特定时期,例如7月至9月,可能会降低与疫苗相关的疫情爆发的风险.
- 疫苗接种和媒介控制是控制非洲马病传播的关键策略.
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