相关实验视频
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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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开发一个随机水文模型,以告知湖泊水位取水管理
Xinchen He1, Konstantinos Andreadis1, Allison H Roy2
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, 130 Natural Resources Rd, Amherst, 01003, MA, USA.
Journal of environmental management
|September 6, 2023
概括
冬季抽水 (WD) 管理可能具有挑战性. 一个新的水文模型 (HMF-Lake) 有助于评估满足提取和补充目标的概率,帮助湖泊管理人员遵循州的指南.
科学领域:
- 环境水文学环境水文学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 临界技术 临界技术
背景情况:
- 冬季抽水 (WD) 是一个常见的湖泊管理实践,用于控制洪水,减少植被和基础设施维护.
- 对于WD的时间和规模,存在监管指导方针,但湖泊特征和水文气象学的不确定性使目标实现复杂化.
- 建模工具对于评估实现水资源管理目标的可行性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估湖泊水位取水管理 (HMF-Lake) 的水文建模框架.
- 通过使用随机模拟来评估15个马萨诸塞州湖泊满足州水量指南的能力.
- 为湖泊管理人员提供关于湖泊管理战略可行性的定量见解.
主要方法:
- 开发了基于每日湖水平衡的HMF-Lake水文建模框架.
- 使用Cemaneige-GR4J降雨-流水模型模拟的流入量和使用修改的目标储存和释放方法 (TSRB) 计算的流出量.
- 采用随机模型执行来评估满足WD指南的概率 (在12月1日之前提取,在4月1日之前重新填充) 对于各种提取大小.
主要成果:
- 在模拟历史湖水位时,HMF-Lake模型表现出令人满意的性能 (NSE:0.530.86).
- 随机分析表明,大多数湖泊在12月1日之前无法达到3英尺或更多的水位.
- 对于大多数湖泊来说,在3月份开始补充是可行的,以达到95%的概率,在4月1日之前完全补充到6英尺 (6英尺) 的 drawdown.
结论:
- HMF-Lake模型为湖泊管理人员提供了一种定量工具,以了解与州指南相对应的水资源可行性.
- 该模型可以支持在州或区域规模上对水资源战略的系统评估.
- 发现有助于适应性WD管理,特别是在不断变化的气候条件下.
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