预测未来的登革热发病率和负担在东南亚
Felipe J Colón-González1,2,3,4,5, Rory Gibb6,7, Kamran Khan8,9
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|September 6, 2023
概括
未来的登革热病例将在本世纪达到峰值,然后下降,区域差异很大. 气候变化的影响被收入增长所抵消,而人口增长则导致登革热负担增加.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 全球登革热的扩散与城市化,流动性和气候变化有关.
- 东南亚是一个受到严重影响的地区,需要更新登革热负担预测.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2099年登革热发病率和病例负担的未来变化.
- 分析气候变化情景对登革热流行病学的影响.
主要方法:
- 来自八个东南亚国家的省级月度登革热病例数据的统计建模.
- 利用最新的气候变化场景进行未来预测.
主要成果:
- 登革热的发病率预计将在本世纪达到峰值,然后下降,在国家之间和国内有很大的变化.
- 泰国北部和柬埔寨预计会出现显著下降,而赤道地区则会出现上升.
- 人口增长是登革热负担增加的主要驱动因素,平衡气候变化影响与收入增长.
结论:
- 未来的登革热负担预测对于区域公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 缓解和适应战略是必要的,以应对东南亚不断变化的登革热威胁.
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