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使用暴露,敏感性和适应能力组件评估多维干旱脆弱性
Hıdır Serkendiz1, Hasan Tatli2
1Department of Geography, School of Graduate Studies, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, 17020, Çanakkale, Turkey. hserkendiz@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|September 6, 2023
概括
本研究介绍了土耳其的多维干旱脆弱性指数 (DVI),评估了生物物理和社会因素. 结果显示,干旱脆弱性的区域差异很大,特别影响南部和东南部的农业社区.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 社会环境研究 社会环境研究
背景情况:
- 干旱脆弱性评估需要综合生物物理和社会维度.
- 现有的指数可能无法充分捕捉区域特点和社会经济因素.
- 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的框架指导了气候变化影响评估.
研究的目的:
- 为土耳其制定和应用一个多维干旱脆弱性指数 (DVI).
- 分析土耳其各省份干旱脆弱性的空间分布.
- 确定最容易受到干旱影响的地区和人口.
主要方法:
- 使用暴露指数 (EI),灵敏度指数 (SI) 和适应能力指数 (ACI) 组件构建了一个新的DVI.
- 在指数计算中使用了9个子指标和29个代理变量.
- 分析层次过程 (AHP) 技术被用来根据专家知识来确定指标和可变权重.
主要成果:
- 土耳其81个省份的干旱脆弱性差异很大.
- 17个省份被归类为"非常高"的脆弱性,16个省份被归类为"高",15个省份被归类为"中等",17个省份被归类为"低",16个省份被归类为"非常低".
- 南部,中部和东南部地区的社会经济不发达和农业依赖性增加了干旱的脆弱性.
结论:
- 开发的DVI有效地捕捉了不同地区的多维干旱脆弱性.
- 针对性的适应战略对于脆弱的省份至关重要,特别是那些依赖农业的省份.
- 综合社会经济因素对于全面干旱风险管理至关重要.
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