量化初级表现在奥运体育运动中预测高级表现的程度:系统审查和元分析
Michael Barth1, Arne Güllich2, Brooke N Macnamara3
1Department of Sport Science, University of Innsbruck, Fürstenweg 176, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria. michael.barth@uibk.ac.at.
Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.)
|September 7, 2023
概括
青少年体育表现对高级成功的预测能力很小,仅解释了2.2%的差异. 这挑战了传统的才华识别模式,尤其是对于年轻的运动员来说.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 人才发展 人才发展
- 绩效分析 绩效分析
背景情况:
- 关于青少年体育表现是否预测高级表现存在争论.
- 传统理论表明,早期的成功对于精英地位至关重要.
- 怀疑论者认为,初级和高级绩效预测指标不同.
结论:
- 青少年的表现对高级运动员的成功具有非常有限的预测价值.
- 结果与传统的天赋和专业知识理论相矛盾.
- 基于年轻人表现的当前人才选择实践需要重新评估.
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