热浪的特点是印度智能城市的热浪加剧
Manish Kumar Goyal1, Shivam Singh2, Vijay Jain2
1Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India. mkgoyal@iiti.ac.in.
Scientific reports
|September 7, 2023
概括
未来的气候场景 (SSP 245和SSP 585) 将加剧印度智慧城市的热浪,特别是在沿海和内陆半岛地区. 预计热浪持续时间将增加一倍,而三市面临的风险最高.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 城市气象城市气象学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 印度城市正在经历越来越严重的热浪,原因是它们的特征变化越来越大.
- 未来的气候预测表明,它将对印度城市的热浪频率,持续时间和强度产生重大影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估未来气候场景 (SSP 245和SSP 585) 对印度智慧城市热浪特征的影响.
- 将历史热浪数据 (1981-2020) 与不同气候场景下的未来预测 (2021-2098) 进行比较.
主要方法:
- 分析历史气象数据 (1981-2020年).
- 根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 245和SSP 585的气候建模,用于未来的预测 (D1,D2,D3).
- 评估印度不同气候区的热浪特征 (持续时间,频率,强度).
主要成果:
- 沿海,内陆半岛和中北部地区预计将经历更强烈和更频繁的热浪.
- 在这些脆弱区域内的智能城市中,预计热浪平均持续时间将增加近两倍.
- 在SSP的两种情景下,特鲁瓦南塔普勒被确定为热浪风险最高的城市.
结论:
- 未来的热浪趋势需要印度智能城市采取主动的适应和减缓策略.
- 政策制定者可以利用这个框架来加强热量行动计划,以改善城市的健康和福祉.
- 针对性干预对于受伤害的地区和特鲁瓦南塔普勒姆等城市来说至关重要,以管理极端高温事件.
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