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样本规模规划和采样官方控制的统计意义
Cesare Ciccarelli1, Angela Marisa Semeraro1, Melina Leinoudi2
1Local Public Health Service - Ascoli Piceno, San Benedetto del Tronto, Italy.
Italian journal of food safety
|September 8, 2023
概括
验收采样计划,特别是允许零缺陷 (c=0) 的采样计划,需要仔细选择样本大小. 错误的样本大小增加了拒绝好食品批发或接受坏食品批发的风险,影响了食品安全.
科学领域:
- 食品安全 食品安全
- 统计质量控制 统计质量控制
- 风险评估 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 接受采样对于生产和官方控制层面的食品安全验证至关重要.
- 抽样计划作为假设测试来接受或拒绝产品批量.
- 样本大小的确定对于管理风险,精度和可接受的错误水平至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了证明样本大小管理如何影响当验收数为零 (c=0) 时,批量拒绝/接受概率.
- 为各种显著性级别的最小样本大小提供实用表.
- 分析采样计划对鱼类产品中Anisakis幼虫的风险评估的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用基于组合学的预测模型来分析样本大小的影响.
- 对于不同样本大小的c=0.0的I型和II型错误的计算概率.
- 在采样计划的背景下,在养殖鱼中审查了Anisakis幼虫的流行数据.
主要成果:
- 在c=0的情况下,高显著性水平与II型错误的高概率相关 (接受坏分).
- 为了实际应用,生成了最小样本大小表.
- 对于大批量 (≥1000个项目),样本大小不太依赖于批量大小,需要标准化方法.
- 仅基于采样计划的Anisakis幼虫的流行数据不支持忽略不计的风险的说法.
结论:
- 在接受采样中优化样本大小对于准确的食品安全决策至关重要.
- 需要采用标准化的采样方法来进行一致的质量控制,特别是对于像Anisakis这样的高风险污染物.
- 目前的采样策略可能低估了某些食品传播危害的实际风险.
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