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韩国热应激变化使用基于气候的指标:1公里高分辨率场景的当前和未来预测
Hyun Min Sung1, Jae-Hee Lee1, Jin-Uk Kim1
1Climate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea.
International journal of environmental research and public health
|September 8, 2023
概括
预计明显的温度 (AT) 增加将影响韩国主要城市,由温度 (TAS) 和湿度 (RH) 的上升驱动. 早期的热适应策略至关重要,特别是在热季前,以减轻未来的热风险.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 表面温度 (AT) 是与公共健康相关的关键热应力指数,被全球气象机构广泛采用.
- 城市地区的高AT目前是由温度升高 (TAS) 和相对湿度 (RH) 驱动的.
研究的目的:
- 根据CMIP6气候场景,估计韩国AT及其组件的变化,包括五个主要城市.
- 分析TAS和RH对AT变化的影响,并预测未来的热风险.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自合模型相互比较项目的第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的国家标准气候场景.
- 分析了当前和未来气候条件的表面温度 (AT),温度 (TAS) 和相对湿度 (RH) 的变化.
- 专注于整个韩国和五个主要城市:首尔,广州,大,大和山.
主要成果:
- 目前,由于TAS和RH升高,主要城市出现高AT,即使在较低的温度下,湿度也起着重要作用.
- 未来的气候预测表明,高AT可能首先出现在主要城市,然后扩散到周边地区.
- 预计热季前 (三月至六月) 的TAS和RH增加会导致更早的热风险和更频繁的高热应激事件.
结论:
- 该研究为了解韩国未来的热风险变化提供了一个参考.
- 调查结果表明,热风险将加剧,需要采取主动的热适应策略,特别是在炎热季节前,对于不习惯高温的人群来说.
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