扩大地块层面土地价值估计的覆盖范围和准确性
Miriam Gold1, Seth Binder1, Christoph Nolte2
1Department of Economics and Department of Environmental Studies, St. Olaf College, Northfield, Minnesota, United States of America.
PloS one
|September 8, 2023
概括
准确的土地成本估计可以改善保护规划. 这项研究通过农业和气候数据增强了土地估值模型,提高了准确性,并节省了数百万的保护购买费用.
科学领域:
- 保护科学 保护科学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 具有成本效益的保护计划取决于高分辨率的土地成本数据.
- 未开发的土地,通常是保护的目标,面临转换压力,特别是农业.
- 现有的模型,如Nolte (2020年),提供县级和地块级估计,但可以增强.
研究的目的:
- 为了提高未开发土地价值估计保护的准确性.
- 将农业生产率和区域市场因素纳入土地估值模型.
- 评估大规模保护计划的增强土地估值的成本节约潜力.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种增强的土地估值模型,包括全县的房屋中位数价值,气候变量和块级土壤数据.
- 扩大了建模的地理规模,以与区域农业市场保持一致.
- 使用增强模型模拟了30%的土地保护计划的成本效益.
主要成果:
- 与受限制的基准相比,增强的模型获得了大约15%的更高准确度.
- 改进的建模方法将覆盖范围扩展到另外376个县.
- 模拟表明30x30计划每年可能节省大约1500万美元.
结论:
- 对农业生产率和区域市场规模的计算显著改善了用于保护的土地价值预测.
- 改进的建模策略为政府购地计划提供了巨大的成本节约.
- 这种方法为具有成本效益的土地保护规划提供了更强大的框架.
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