不确定性与基于一致的对对比的优先级的不准确性有关
1Faculty of Economics and Management, Opole University of Technology, Opole, Poland.
PloS one
|September 8, 2023
概括
这项研究表明,一致的对比矩阵 (PCM) 产生优先向量 (PV),这些向量是在置信区间内的近似值,而不是确切的值. 蒙特卡洛模拟突出了优先级结果的概率性质,影响了决策可靠性.
科学领域:
- 多属性决策 (MADM) 是指多属性的决策.
- 决策分析 决策分析
- 运营研究 运营研究
背景情况:
- 对对比的不一致性 (PCs) 是MADM的一个关键子领域,具有广泛的研究含义.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了PC一致性对衍生优先向量 (PV) 可信度和不确定性的影响.
- 从一致的PC和它们对排名稳定性的影响的角度来研究优先级存在一个重要的研究差距.
研究的目的:
- 通过调查一致的对对比矩阵 (PCM) 对决策者优先事项的影响,解决发现的研究缺口.
- 尽量减少优先级的不确定性,并理解多属性决策 (MADM) 中的排名波动.
- 重新评估等级逆转现象和分析层次过程 (AHP) 结果的模糊性.
主要方法:
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟来分析无法数学确定的启发式问题.
- 使用沃尔夫拉姆的Mathematica软件编码和执行模拟过程.
- 应用统计假设测试来评估排名结果正确或不正确的概率.
主要成果:
- 一致的PCM生成优先向量 (PVs),这些向量是近似值,而不是精确值,在特定的置信区间内.
- 这项研究为排名逆转现象和AHP结果内在的不确定性提供了新的视角.
- 建立了一个概率框架,用于评估来自一致的PC的优先级结果的可靠性.
结论:
- 决策者和研究人员必须承认,从一致的PCM中获得的PV代表了与相关概率的近似值.
- 这些发现增强了MADM应用中的优先级结果的解释和可靠性评估.
- 这项研究提供了一种基于统计的方法来评估优先级排名的有效性.
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