观测和模型证据共同支持在持续的全球变暖下,广泛暴露于不可补偿的热量
Carter M Powis1, David Byrne2, Zachary Zobel2
1Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Science advances
|September 8, 2023
概括
全球变暖正在使致命的极端热量变得更加频繁. 这项研究确定了一个经验支持的热补偿能力极限,表明这些危险条件已经发生,并且将在全球范围内迅速增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 人体生理学 人体生理学
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升对人类生存构成威胁.
- 之前的研究集中在理论上的35°C湿球热耐受度值.
- 了解经验热极限对于适应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用极端价值理论实证地确定热补偿能力的极限.
- 分析当前和未来发生的危险的极端热量事件.
- 为了告知热适应策略.
主要方法:
- 对气象站观测结果的分析.
- 使用气候模型预测.
- 极端价值理论的应用.
主要成果:
- 确定了一个经验支持的热补偿能力极限.
- 最热的地区已经偶尔经历了这些极端现象.
- 温和的变暖将在全球范围内迅速增加频率和范围,除了南极洲.
结论:
- 不能弥补的热量事件正在出现.
- 当前的热适应规划需要纳入临界热极限.
- 迫切需要解决极端高温暴露的日益增加的风险.
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