2020年30个国家的所有原因和特定原因过度死亡的综合分析
Gianfranco Alicandro1,2, Carlo La Vecchia3, Nazrul Islam4,5
1Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy. gianfranco.alicandro@unimi.it.
European journal of epidemiology
|September 8, 2023
概括
2020年,COVID-19显著增加了因缺血性心脏病,脑血管疾病和糖尿病的死亡率. 许多国家超出了COVID-19的过度死亡,突出了对心血管健康和糖尿病管理的影响.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
背景情况:
- 尚不完全了解COVID-19对各种死亡原因死亡率的具体影响.
- 了解这些影响对于公共卫生规划和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析死亡原因数据,以估计2020年因特定疾病而导致的过度死亡.
- 量化大流行对缺血性心脏病,脑血管疾病和糖尿病死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用世界卫生组织2011-2019年30个国家的死亡原因数据.
- 采用过度分散的波桑回归模型来估计预期的死亡人数,同时考虑年龄和时间趋势.
- 通过将2020年观察到的死亡人数与模型估计的预期死亡人数进行比较来计算过剩死亡人数.
主要成果:
- 在10个国家观察到缺血性心脏病 (IHD),10个国家观察到脑血管疾病 (CVD) 和19个国家观察到糖尿病的显著过剩死亡.
- 在30个国家中,有22个国家在2020年总死亡率显著增加.
- 过度死亡率在许多国家超过10%,墨西哥,危地马拉,波兰和爱沙尼亚的IHD,CVD和糖尿病显著增加.
结论:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,比直接的COVID-19死亡还要多,死亡率大幅增加.
- 心血管疾病和糖尿病受到显著影响,这表明大流行病的间接影响.
- 需要进一步的研究,以了解驱动这些非COVID-19死亡过剩的机制.
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