喜马拉雅大松鼠 (Marmota himalayana) 在气候变化下重新分配到高度
Zhicheng Wang1,2,3, Yukun Kang1,2,3, Yan Wang1,2,3
1College of Grassland Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|September 9, 2023
概括
未来的气候变化将在青海-西藏高原稍微扩大适合喜马拉雅大象 (Marmota himalayana) 的息地. 预计其分布中心将向东北移动,影响草原生态系统和瘟疫监测.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 动物学 动物学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变暖和人类活动显著改变了物种分布.
- 喜马拉雅大猩猩 (Marmota himalayana) 是青海-西藏高原 (QTP) 的生态系统工程师,影响草原并可能传播瘟疫.
- 了解松鼠的分布对于生态系统管理,生物多样性保护和公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化场景下预测喜马拉雅大黄蜂的未来分布和中心位置迁移.
- 确定影响物种潜在分布的关键环境因素.
- 为生态管理和瘟疫监测提供理论基础.
主要方法:
- 利用最大模型来预测息地的适宜性.
- 分析了环境因素的影响,包括人类足迹指数和高度.
- 预计2050年代和2070年代的分布变化.
主要成果:
- 人类足迹指数 (72.80%) 和海拔高度 (16.40%) 是决定松鼠分布的最关键因素.
- 适度覆盖的草原被确定为首选息地.
- 适合息地面积预计将略有增加,分布中心向北和向东转移.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将导致喜马拉雅大猩猩息地的轻微扩张和东北转移.
- 这些变化对草原退化,生物多样性和瘟疫传播动态产生影响.
- 这些发现为有针对性的生态管理和疾病监测策略提供了参考.
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