对预测死亡风险的3项健康指数的评估:一项12年随访研究
Silvin P Knight1,2, Mark Ward1,2, Eoin Duggan1,2,3
1The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, D02 R590 Dublin, Ireland.
Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 9, 2023
概括
一个新的3项健康指数 (HI) 有效地预测了老年人的12年死亡风险,其表现与所有原因死亡率的现有脆弱性措施相似,但在心血管和呼吸道死亡方面表现优于它们.
科学领域:
- 老年学与公共卫生
- 生物医学工程 生物医学工程
- 临床医学 临床医学
背景情况:
- 脆弱性评估对于预测老年人死亡率至关重要.
- 像脆弱指数 (FI) 和脆弱表型 (FP) 这样的现有指标存在局限性.
- 需要更简单,客观和有效的死亡率预测工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个新的3项健康指数 (HI),用于预测12年死亡风险.
- 将HI的预测性能与已确定的FI和FP进行比较.
- 评估HI在预测全因,心血管和呼吸道死亡率方面的实用性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自爱尔兰长度老龄化研究 (TILDA) 的大量老年人队列 (N=4265).
- 该HI基于缩血压样本,持续的注意力反应时间和步行速度.
- 考克斯比例回归分析了12年死亡率数据;在STATA 15.1中进行的统计分析.
主要成果:
- 在所有原因死亡率 (AUC=0.68) 中,HI显示出良好的区分能力,可与FI (AUC=0.68) 相比,优于FP (AUC=0.60).
- 在预测心血管和呼吸道死亡方面,HI显著超过FI和FP (AUC=0.74与0.70和0.64对比).
- HI有效地将参与者分为低风险,中风险和高风险组,死亡风险比率显著.
结论:
- 三项HI是预测老年人12年死亡风险的有效工具.
- HI的表现与所有死因死亡率的现有脆弱性指标相提并论.
- 该HI为心血管和呼吸道死亡率提供了卓越的预测,并提供了实用的风险分层方法.
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