使用系统动态方法探索自动化车辆,常规车辆和公共交通之间的模式转换在澳大利亚墨尔本,澳大利亚
Yilun Chen1, Peter Stasinopoulos1, Nirajan Shiwakoti1
1School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 9, 2023
概括
在澳大利亚,自动驾驶汽车 (AV) 将逐渐取代传统汽车 (CV). 公共交通 (PT) 仍然至关重要,成本和基础设施影响了AV采用率.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 系统动力学建模系统动力学建模
背景情况:
- 自动驾驶汽车 (AV) 准备在全球范围内破坏交通系统.
- 有限的研究存在于AVs对城市层面的模式转换的影响,特别是在澳大利亚.
- 了解影响传统车辆 (CV),自动驾驶汽车和公共交通 (PT) 之间的模式选择的因素对于未来的城市交通至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个系统动态 (SD) 模型来探索CV,AV和PT之间的模式转换动态.
- 分析各种因素 (例如,道路网络,成本,拥堵) 对墨尔本模式选择的影响.
- 为决策者提供关于AV采用策略的见解.
主要方法:
- 开发一个系统动态 (SD) 模型模拟模式转移超过50年.
- 使用墨尔本交通网络和维多利亚综合运输模型 (VITM) 数据的案例研究.
- 包括交通,道路容量,公众看法和技术进步等因素.
主要成果:
- 预计AV车将逐渐取代CV车作为主要的运输方式.
- 公共交通 (PT) 将继续发挥重要作用,在2058年后可能处理50%的旅行.
- 车辆成本是AV采用最有影响力的因素,其次是道路网络容量和认识.
结论:
- 自动驾驶汽车将大大改变交通景观,但PT仍然至关重要.
- 关于AV采用的政策决策应该优先考虑成本,基础设施和公众参与.
- 未来的研究应该解决诱导的旅行需求,并提高模型准确性与平衡约束.
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