开发和验证一个用于预测形甲状腺癌早期死亡的诺姆图:一项基于SEER人口的SEER研究
Hanxiao Cui1, Ru Wang2, Xuyan Zhao1
1Department of Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology
|September 9, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了名录,以预测形甲状腺癌 (ATC) 患者的早期死亡. 这些工具有助于识别风险因素,并指导个性化治疗,以改善侵略性ATC的预后.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医学统计 医学统计
背景情况:
- 无塑性甲状腺癌 (ATC) 是一种具有不良预后的侵袭性恶性瘤.
- 识别早期死亡预测因素对于改善患者的治疗结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定ATC患者早期死亡的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证用于预测ATC中全因早期死亡 (ACED) 和癌症特异性早期死亡 (CSED) 的nomograms.
主要方法:
- 利用来自SEER数据库的696名ATC患者 (2004-2015) 的数据进行模型开发和内部验证.
- 使用单变量和多变量逻辑回归来识别风险因素.
- 用于ACED和CSED预测的构造名录.
主要成果:
- 确定了关键预测因素,包括瘤大小,M阶段,手术,放射治疗和化疗用于ACED,性别也包括在CSED中.
- 在训练和验证队列中,诺莫图表表现出令人满意的预测性能和一致性 (AUC从0.745到0.814不等).
- 决策曲线分析表明,开发的诺米图片具有良好的临床效用.
结论:
- 开发的诺姆图为临床医生提供了有价值的工具,以评估ATC患者的早期死亡风险.
- 这些名图可以帮助量身定制个性化治疗策略,以改善ATC的预后.
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