气候变化如何改变日本的电力需求:数据驱动分析的见解
Léna Gurriaran1, Katsumasa Tanaka2, Kiyoshi Takahashi3
1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; ATOS, River Ouest, Bezons, Cedex, 95877, France.
Journal of environmental management
|September 10, 2023
概括
气候变化影响日本的电力需求,导致区域二氧化碳排放的变化. 极端气候表现出更高的敏感性,可能导致停电和改变各种社会经济路径下的排放趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
背景情况:
- 气候变化对日本的电网构成风险,并对全球温室气体排放作出重大贡献.
- 了解气候变量,人类活动和电力需求之间的相互作用对于能源政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的气候和社会经济情景下,预测未来日本电力需求,碳强度和二氧化碳排放的变化.
- 分析气候变化对日本电力部门的影响的区域和季节性差异.
主要方法:
- 在日本十个地区使用每日电力数据,气候变量,热应激指数和人类活动水平来训练随机森林模型.
- 利用三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景 (SSP126,SSP370,SSP585) 来估计未来的电力需求和2020-2100年的二氧化碳排放.
主要成果:
- 对全球变暖的电力需求敏感性因地区而异,极端气候地区的影响更大.
- 变暖趋势导致寒冷地区冬季电力需求下降,但在炎热地区可能增加夏季电力需求,可能会在高温季节 (五月,六月,九月,十月) 造成电网紧张.
- 预计每年净二氧化碳排放量将整体下降,除了冲绳,尽管碳强度的变化可能会改变某些地区的趋势.
结论:
- 气候变化对日本的能源需求和二氧化碳排放有重大影响,区域差异需要定制的适应战略.
- 气候变化和社会经济因素的综合影响,特别是在SSP585下,放大了对二氧化碳总排放的影响.
- 调查结果提供了对全球能源需求和二氧化碳排放变化的洞察力,这些变化是由气候变化驱动的.
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