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确定土地使用,景观模式和气候变化对从过去到未来的河流流动的影响
Yingshuo Lyu1, Hong Chen1, Zhe Cheng1
1School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
Journal of environmental management
|September 10, 2023
概括
北京未来的气候和土地使用变化将导致整体流量减少,季节性模式发生变化. 这两个因素共同影响溪流流动,景观模式往往主导盆地间的年度变化.
科学领域:
- 生态水文学 生态水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 了解土地使用,景观模式和气候变化对区域生态水文平衡的综合影响至关重要.
- 非线性,效果大小和多重因果关系在调查这些水文反应时存在挑战.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个全面的框架来量化景观模式和气候变化.
- 评估河流流动趋势,并从过去到未来对北京盆地的河流流动事件进行归因.
- 分析景观模式和气候变化对河流流动的单独和综合影响.
主要方法:
- 在两个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下,利用了来自三个通用循环模型 (GCM) 的未来气候预测.
- 模拟未来的景观模式使用补丁生成土地使用模拟 (PLUS) 模型.
- 应用了土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 进行流动动力学,并使用启动非线性回归和增强回归树 (BRT) 模型进行归因分析.
主要成果:
- 未来的预测表明,北京流域的流量总体下降,夏季峰值减少,但秋冬流量增加.
- 非线性二次回归有效地捕捉了景观模式和气候变化的复杂影响.
- 景观格局在大多数流域的年度流量变化中比气候变化更为重要,除了永河流域外.
结论:
- 景观模式和气候变化对流量的影响是联合的,表现为非线性,非均和合关系.
- 流量变化趋势取决于这些关系中的值.
- 调查结果为城市规划者和管理人员提供了关键的见解,以优化生态水文功能并促进可持续发展.
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