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模拟中国大豆种植适宜性及其气候变化情景中的未来趋势

Qinyan Zhu¹, Fumin Wang², Qiuxiang Yi³

¹Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Information System, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.

Journal of environmental management

|September 10, 2023

概括

这项研究使用环境因素和气候变化情景评估了中国大豆种植的适宜性. 结果显示,适合区域的转移,在未来的某些路径下,中国东北和西南地区的潜在增长.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
适应气候变化适应气候变化

背景情况:

大豆是全球石油和蛋白质供应的关键作物,影响了农业经济.
评估大豆种植适宜性对于优化种植策略和确定新区域至关重要.
了解气候变化下的未来趋势对于可持续农业规划至关重要.

研究的目的:

使用环境数据模拟大豆种植适宜性和潜在分布在中国.
在不同的气候变化和社会经济情景下预测大豆种植的未来趋势 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585).
确定影响大豆种植适宜性的关键环境因素.

主要方法:

利用基于大豆收获率 (FSHA) 的形数据和环境因素 (气候,土壤,地形,社会经济) 的MaxEnt建模.
整合了三条共享社会经济路径 (SSP),以模拟未来的气候变化影响.
分析了影响因素,包括海拔,降水,土壤特性,温度和社会经济指标.

主要成果:

确定了关键的适用性因素:海拔,最热季度降水量,粘土容量,坡度,初级工业部分,地表石,日间温度范围和累积温度≥10°C.
目前的高适合性和中适合性区域包括26.51 Mha和41.93 Mha,主要集中在东北,中国北部和长江平原.
未来的预测显示,在SSP126/SSP245下适合性波动,但在SSP585下持续增加,特别是在中国东北部. 中国西南地区显示出跨场景的潜在适用性.

结论:

大豆种植的适宜性受到环境和社会经济因素的复杂相互作用的影响.
气候变化,在不同的SSP下,将显著改变中国适合种植大豆地区的空间分布.
研究结果为优化当前和未来大豆种植布局和制定适应性策略提供了关键的参考.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化种植面积的种植面积是什么马克森特模型的模型.豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆豆种类分布种类分布

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