对航空安全中人为错误对联动动态影响的分析
Yibing Wu1, Shuguang Zhang1, Xuan Zhang2
1School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|September 10, 2023
概括
人类错误对航空事故有很大影响. 一个新的人类因素分析和分类系统 (HFACS) 和系统动力学 (SD) 模型揭示了这些因素如何相互作用,使得有针对性的安全改进能够降低事故率.
科学领域:
- 航空安全航空安全
- 系统工程 系统工程
- 人类因素分析分析
背景情况:
- 人为因素是飞机事故的主要原因,往往与环境,机械和生理因素相互作用.
- 了解这些因素的复杂相互作用对于预防航空事故至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种混合模型,将人类因素分析和分类系统 (HFACS) 与系统动力学 (SD) 集成在一起,以分析航空人类错误风险的演变.
- 通过自身价值弹性分析,识别影响航空安全的关键因素和反循环.
主要方法:
- 构建了一个混合HFACS-SD模型,使用HFACS识别人类错误风险的因果因素.
- 系统动力学被用来建模航空人类因素风险的演变,并与历史数据验证.
- 进行了自身价值弹性分析,以评估关键循环和参数对系统行为的影响.
主要成果:
- 该HFACS-SD模型准确地复制了历史事故率趋势.
- 结构主导分析有效地确定了影响航空安全的关键环节和参数.
- 该模型表明,实施推的安全增强措施可以提高系统稳定性并降低事故率.
结论:
- 混合HFACS-SD模型为了解和减轻航空人为错误风险提供了一个强大的框架.
- 通过该模型确定的有针对性的安全增强措施有效地提高了航空系统的整体稳定性和安全性.
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