机器学习和贝叶斯空间Poisson模型的综合方法用于大规模的实时交通冲突预测
Dongya Li1, Chuanyun Fu2, Tarek Sayed3
1School of Transportation, Southeast University, China; Department of Civil Engineering, The University of British Columbia, Canada.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|September 10, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的方法,将机器学习和贝叶斯空间Poisson模型结合起来,用于实时预测交通冲突. 综合方法准确地预测了交通冲突的发生和频率,增强了道路安全分析.
科学领域:
- 道路安全工程 道路安全工程
- 交通管理系统 交通管理系统
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 交通冲突对于积极的道路安全评估和实时分析至关重要.
- 现有的方法往往缺乏大规模,实时预测交通冲突的能力.
研究的目的:
- 为大规模的,实时的交通冲突预测开发一个综合的方法.
- 用交通状态作为解释变量来预测冲突发生和频率.
- 用时间到碰撞 (TTC) 和入侵后时间 (PET) 来分类交通冲突严重程度.
主要方法:
- 一个整合的方法,结合机器学习 (ML) 算法和贝叶斯空间Poisson (BSP) 模型.
- 使用八个ML分类器预测了交通冲突的发生,随机森林被选为表现最好.
- 使用BSP模型预测的交通冲突频率,分析与交通状态 (体积,密度,速度) 的关系.
主要成果:
- 随机森林在预测交通冲突发生方面取得了卓越的准确性.
- 综合方法在冲突频率预测方面表现高 (RMSE:0.13840.1699,MAPE:9.25%36.99%,MAE:0.00870.6398). 综合方法在冲突频率预测方面表现高.
- 通过BSP模型的分析,确定了影响交通状态的重要因素.
结论:
- 拟议的综合方法有效地预测了实时的交通冲突的发生和频率.
- 单独预测不同严重程度的冲突的发生和频率对于有效的道路安全管理至关重要.
- 该研究强调了交通状态在理解和缓解交通冲突方面的重要性.
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