将数学函数与延长的哺乳期曲线相匹配,并预测乳牛的晚期哺乳期奶产
David J Innes1, Linaya J Pot1, Dave J Seymour2
1Centre for Nutrition Modelling, Department of Animal Biosciences, University of Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1 Canada.
Journal of dairy science
|September 10, 2023
概括
延长奶牛的哺乳期有好处,但目前的模型难以准确预测奶产,以便早期识别合适的奶牛. 对于可靠的决策支持系统,需要进一步的研究.
科学领域:
- 乳制品科学 乳制品科学
- 动物生产 动物生产
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 传统的乳制品管理使用305天的哺乳期,然后是60天的干燥期.
- 现代密集型系统通常会干掉具有大量牛奶产量的奶牛.
- 延长哺乳期可以提供生产,福利和经济优势.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较迪克斯特拉,伍德和威尔明克的哺乳模型对原生母牛和多生母牛的延长哺乳期的适用性.
- 为了确定早期哺乳期每日乳产量 (MY) 数据的数量,需要准确预测305天的MY.
- 评估早期数据是否足以在自愿等待期之前识别适合长期哺乳的奶牛.
主要方法:
- 从467个荷尔斯坦-弗里西亚哺乳期 (>305天) 的每日MY数据与使用非线性回归的三种哺乳模型相匹配.
- 比较参数估计,哺乳期特征,以及平价和哺乳期长度之间的适应性.
- 使用早期哺乳期的数据 (牛奶中30至300天) 用迪克斯特拉模型预测305天的MY,评估受约束和不受约束的参数界限.
主要成果:
- 这三种模型都显示出类似的性能,其平价差异与现有文献相一致.
- 迪克斯特拉模型证明了对早期哺乳期数据 (30和60 DIM) 的优越适用性.
- 随着更多的数据,305天的预测准确性得到了改善,受约束的参数提高了预测,但由于不确定性很高,在农场使用的整体可靠性不足.
结论:
- 目前的哺乳模式尚未足够可靠,无法为延长哺乳期提供实际的农场决策支持.
- 使用90天的数据,受约束的迪克斯特拉模型在25公斤/天的目标MI中实现了66%的正确分类,对于较低的目标或较少的数据,准确性下降.
- 混合机器学习和结合额外数据 (历史,遗传) 的机械模型是有意义的哺乳曲线预测所需的.
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