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沿海河流三角洲的全球变化场景及其对可持续发展的影响
Murray W Scown1,2, Frances E Dunn3,4, Stefan C Dekker2
1Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), Lund, Sweden.
概括
全球三角洲面临着重大的可持续发展挑战,原因是海平面上升和土地沉降. 未来的预测显示,水排放量增加,沉积物减少和极端的海平面,特别影响具有较弱适应能力的亚洲和非洲三角洲.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 三角洲对全球可持续发展至关重要,它拥有大量人口和耕地.
- 它们的低地理位置使它们易受上游流域开发和海平面上升的影响.
- 对三角洲系统的重大压力威胁着社会,经济和生态系统的持续存在.
研究的目的:
- 分析49个全球三角洲在2100年之前在各种共享社会经济路径和代表性度路径下的未来发展.
- 评估气候变化和人类活动对三角洲环境和社会的综合影响.
- 确定面临最大压力和最弱适应能力的三角洲,以实现可持续发展.
主要方法:
- 全球49个三角洲的分析,使用共享社会经济路径和代表性度路径的场景.
- 预测人口密度的变化,城市部分,耕地,河水/沉积物排放和海平面上升.
- 评估到2100年的区域海平面上升,陆地沉降和极端海平面事件.
主要成果:
- 三角洲的人口和耕地密度是全球平均水平的3-12倍.
- 预计最大河水排放量 (11-33%) 的增加和沉积物排放量 (26-37%) 的减少因场景而异.
- 到2100年,区域海平面上升可能达到1.0米 (2.0米沉降),某些三角洲的极端水平超过4.0米.
- 亚洲和非洲三角洲面临着高度的社会经济挑战,人口/土地使用压力很高,适应能力低.
结论:
- 三角洲面临着环境变化和社会经济脆弱性带来的挑战,特别是在亚洲和非洲.
- 高压三角洲的适应能力较弱,加剧了可持续发展的挑战.
- 河流"热点"中的环境过程需要在全球可持续发展议程和综合评估模型中得到更多的考虑.
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