统计方法的比较,用于在人口较少的环境中早期发现疾病爆发
Adam T Craig1,2, Robert Neil F Leong2, Mark W Donoghoe3
1School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Australia.
IJID regions
|September 11, 2023
概括
基于算法的疾病爆发检测在小群体中不可靠. 目前的方法在有限的背景数据中扎,需要使用替代策略,在资源有限的环境中进行准确的监视.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 早期发现疾病爆发至关重要,特别是在小群体中.
- 现有的异常检测算法主要在大型数据集上进行验证.
- 对于这些算法的性能存在有限的理解,只有少量的背景案例.
研究的目的:
- 评估六种异常检测算法的有效性,用于早期检测疾病爆发.
- 使用来自小人口环境的基于综合征的监测数据来比较算法性能.
- 在低背景案例环境中识别当前方法的局限性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个模拟模型来测试算法性能.
- 模拟了不同规模,持续时间和病例分布的疫情.
- 通过使用太平洋综合征监测系统 (PSSS) 的数据来评估性能.
主要成果:
- 早期偏差报告系统-C1算法表现出比其他算法更好的性能,但并不普遍可靠.
- 没有单一的算法在所有模拟的爆发场景中始终提供可靠的监测.
- 异常检测方法可靠地检测到只有非常大的和急性爆发.
结论:
- 基于算法的爆发信号检测不太适合在背景病例很少的环境中使用.
- 目前的方法不应该仅仅依靠在人口较少的环境中进行监视.
- 在资源有限,人口少的环境中,急需新的方法来提高疫情检测的准确性和及时性.
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